Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
